Well, I've finally found a quick moment to do my own personal post-mortem of the recently-concluded Canadian federal election.  And my "executive summary" is simply this: Dion lost the election because he wasn't a strong enough communicator.  And there could be no more a fatal flaw for any politician.  Oh sure; you can be in politics without strength as a communicator, but you'll never excel - and you need to excel to be elected to the top political post in most countries.  Even in Canada (where our politics are said to be unexciting.)

Other explanations were raised:

• Dion was a 'weak' leader.  I've never been sure what this meant exactly, but I've never found Dion particularly weak.  He was presented as weak by the Conservatives and somehow this stuck with both the media and as a perception with the Canadian public, but I still feel strongly this has more to do with Dion's chronic inability to communicate effectively, particularly in English.
  
• The 'Green Shift' was the right idea, at absolutely the wrong time.  This was Dion's own explanation for his defeat; at least the principal reason.  But despite the public reporting to pollsters repeatedly going into the election that the environment and climate change were the leading issues - I'm still very skeptical that the majority of people are prepared to sacrifice where it hurts most to do anything about it: in the pocketbook.  Not that the Green Shift was going to do that, necessarily.  Again despite what the Conservatives were saying about it, this wasn't a tax grab - it was, simply put, a reform of the tax system to orient the collection of revenue around pollution instead of wealth exclusively.  Yet despite the relative simplicity of this idea, the unyielding complaint was the plan confused voters (presumably in terms of the details of the plan's implementation).  And, once again - poor communication was to blame for this, although not solely poor communication by Dion.
  
• The Liberal Party was cash-strapped and fought the election at too great a disadvantage.  The sponsorship scandal a few years back cost the party dearly in terms of popular political contributions and party memberships - particularly in the home province of the scandal, and a long-time stronghold of Liberal support among federalist voters: Québec.  While the scandal itself was the cause of cash flow problems, little has really been done to rectify the situation - and the job would be made much easier if the party had a leader that could inspire and attract interest in the party and its policies.  Dion's communications weakness hobbled what meager efforts were undertaken prior to the election call.
  
• The Party wasn't fully behind Dion.  This notion came to light only after the election was over, but it has become increasingly common to hear pundits claim that Liberals behind the scene weren't fully behind Dion because he'd frequently dismiss advice from colleagues and party strategists - even when he was urged to downplay or drop the Green Shift.  Some Liberal candidates - particularly defeated ones - have also come forward in recent days claiming they'd hear "I like you, but not your leader" when canvassing door-to-door.  The trouble with this idea is that it's hard to guage exactly what practical impact it had either on the campaign or on voter decision-making.  One would think such divisions within the party would lead candidates to be less-enthused about their leader both going door-to-door and in discourse with their own volunteers, but they'd be well aware that it could only be counter-productive to openly divorce themselves from Dion during an election campaign.

Of course, whatever the reason, it simply wasn't tenable for Dion to remain leader.  I am disappointed with his performance - particularly so because I originally supported him when he was but one in a field of almost nameless Liberal backbenchers vying for the top job; to fill the vacuum left by Paul Martin's departure.  He's a bright fellow whom, I'm sure, could have mastered English far more had he made more of an effort (and his efforts were allegedly half-hearted).  This would have gone a long way to boost his overall weakness as a communicator, and he simply blew his chance in my books.

So who's next?

Obviously, two names familliar to those who followed the last Liberal leadership convention if no other party history, are currently at the forefront: Bob Rae and Michael Ignatief.  And, unfortunately, if either of these fellows gets elected leader -the Liberal Party could be facing the same kind of oblivion the Progressive Conservatives were led to by Brian Mulroney.  Rae is not thought fondly of in his home province of Ontario thanks to a whole host of political history form his term as provincial Premier; some rationales for that disdain make more sense than others.  And I've heard too much about Ignatief undermining Dion the same way Martin damaged Chrétien's leaership prior to Martin finally being coronated leader after the latter's retirement.  And I don't like it when ambition overrides the interests of the party and the ideals it stands for - indeed, I'm very suspicious of those who find themselves being cast in such light.  And so are a whole lot of other Canadians.

But the Liberals have a real problem. Delegates have already lined up behind these two - many even before Dion had formally lost the election.  Is there anyone else who could come in off the sidelines to resurrect the Liberal Party?

There are a few names to consider: Shiela Copps, Brian Tobin and Frank McKenna.  But so far the former two have not made so much as a hit they're even considering the succession.  And McKenna - notorious for not committing one way or the other quickly (as was the scenario during the last Liberal leadership race) - has indicated he's thinking about it, but the punditry appears to be leaning away from suggesting there's any real likelihood of him coming in.

Fortunately, there's still a fair bit of time before the Liberals will be in any position to hold their convention to sort the party's future leadership out.  And if they've got any collective wisdom left in their ranks, they'll use the time to carefully consider alternatives to those whose candidacy is assured for the Party will surely be setting itself up for another failed leadership and further damage (possibly the irreparable sort) otherwise.  The early wish I have is for McKenna to enter the race and save the party - notwithstanding declarations from Copps, Tobin or perhaps other less-prominent alternatives with longer odds, but a greater chance of restoring the Liberal Party to its rightful place in the center of the Canadian political landscape.

Ever wanted to know what the election history of your riding was?  How did people vote last time?  What were the percentages?  Were there any trends?

Well, in preparing a blog article tonight, I quickly put together a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet template that's compatible both with Elections Canada data from the 2000 general election, and the newer data set Elections Canada has used from 2004 to the present.  The template comes complete with numeric summaries and charts displaying voting trends and comparing them.  Each spreadsheet is devoted to data from a single riding.

Instructions:

How do you use the template?  Well, you simply cut-and-paste downloaded data from Elections Canada and then match the results cell on each of the yearly worksheets to the right place in the totals chart for that election.  I've created a short video to explain the process (because it's much faster to just demo the process than write it all out) - you can watch this below.  Feel free to chat or email me with any questions, but the hope is you'll find it straightforward...

Well election day is almost here - just over 16 hours to go as of the time I'm writing this article.  It's going to be a close one again too!  Although polls seem to favour a Conservative victory (minority government again), according to Harris-Decima's rolling poll - the Liberals are within the margin of error to lead the seat count in Ontario.

But outside of the main election, what ridings will I be watching?  Well myself, I've got my eye obviously on the riding I'm voting in: Ottawa-Vanier.  And two others are of personal interest; Papineau in downtown Montreal, and my former home riding of Winnipeg South.  All for different reasons.

Party Candidate Total Votes % of total Delta LIB Bélanger, Mauril (X) 23,567 42.04% -6.74% CPC Benoit, Paul 15,970 28.49% +4.49% NDP Dagenais,  Ric 12,145 21.67% +3.27% GRN Raphaël Thierrin 3,675 6.56% -0.26% Other Parties 338 0.60% -0.61% Unspoiled / Unrejected Sub-Total 55,695 99.36% +0.15% Rejected Ballots 358 0.64% -0.15% Total Ballots Cast 56,053 100.00%

Download the latest version of Flash to view this content   Canadian Election Historical Charts Riding Results: 2004 & 2006 The image carousels above are photo albums linked to additional data concerning the ridings discussed in this article.  All supporting data has been collected from Elections Canada's website.

In Ottawa-Vanier, we're looking at what's thought to be a safe Liberal seat, which sounds like it might be a bit of a rare thing these days.  The inset, right, shows the vote share last time around in 2006 and, as you can see, Liberal incumbent Maruil Bélanger had little trouble staving off the Conservative challenger Paul Benoit despite slipping Liberal support, thanks to the sponsorship scandal.

What's to watch here then?  Well, mostly whether Bélnager loses support.  If we look at the historical data collected from previous elections, Bélanger has found his support gradually declining and although he won by a very comfortably margin in 2006, he could suffer the same fate as one of his former colleagues - Reg Alcock who, by most accounts, made the mistake of spending too much time outside of his home riding in the 2006 election, losing it unexpectedly.

In particular, the NDP has been increasingly active in Ottawa-Vanier, trying very hard to capture an additional Ottawa seat to join Paul Dewar (NDP) who defeated a Liberal "star candidate" in Ottawa-Centre in the last general election.

(A quick note about Paul Dewar: his mother died during the course of the election which must have been terribly stressful.  Speaking as someone who lost his mother at an enormously inopportune moment in my life - during final year university exams - I can certainly appreciate how difficult such a situation would be for him.  Condolences to Mr. Dewar and here's hoping his campaign doesn't suffer too much dealing with such personal adversity.)

Next, we're looking at Papineau riding in downtown Montreal.  The history of Papineau since 2000 is largely a legacy of Liberal politics - being the riding formerly held by Pierre Pettigrew.  Pettigrew was in both the Chrétien & Martin cabinets carrying a number of junior and senior portfolios.  But he was defeated by the Bloc candidate in the Martin defeat of 2006, which of course sets the stage for this year's election.  (Papineau is highlighted in the Elections Canada riding map of the Montreal area below - is would be the same light blue colour without the highlighting as it's currently held by the Bloc Québecois.)

Pierre Pettigrew (LIB), MP for Papineau 1996-2006 Vivan Barbot (BQ), MP for Papineau 2006- Present Justin Trudeau (LIB), Candidate for Papineau 2008 General Election

Enter none other than the eldest son of former Canadian Prime Minister Pierre E. Trudeau - Justin Trudeau.  The elder Trudeau was recently voted "Greatest Canadian" on a CBC Television program devoted to the topic of picking the greatest Canadian figures from history, so there's a certain amount of popularity that comes to Justin automatically.  Even so, by all accounts, Papineau has been far from a sure thing.  Dion was said to be opposed to parachuting him into a safe riding, though Justin Trudeau himself was opposed to it in any event.  One such contest might have been having him run in his father's old riding, Mount Royal where some pundits added it would have given the Liberal party a fair bit more political mileage by allowing Trudeau to campaign in other regions of the country.

But it wasn't to be and he's fought a tough fight against the fairly popular incumbent Vivian Barbot.  Regardless, the latest poll of the riding taken for La Presse by Harriss-Decima on October 8th shows Trudeau is leading by 4 points.  Of course, that's within the margin of error - so no matter who wins, this one's gonna be a squaker in all likelihood.

Finally, we turn our attention to my old home riding of Winnipeg-South.  The story of this riding is, until a little under 2 years ago, that of Reg Alcock who was elected as the Liberal candidate shortly prior to my graduating with my B.A. from the University of Manitoba, and starting work as a web developer with a small Internet Service Provider (ISP) in the riding.  Indeed, the story includes me because, in addition to volunteering for Alcock's campaign while at university, I would shortly thereafter be employed by Alcock to build the very first website for a sitting Member of Parliament anywhere in Canada.  I also was contracted to transpose the first Liberal Party Red Book from its printed form into an early HTML layout and help make it available on the web, through Alcock's web site.

Reg Alcock, former MP for Winnipeg-South

Alcock's political career was cut short, however, in 2006 when a Conservative candidate making a second run at the traditionally swing seat was able to defeat Alcock by just over 100 votes!  It was a huge upset since Alcock at the time was serving as President of the Treasury Board - moving up the ranks of cabinet with a promising career ahead.  Alcock left politics after his defeat and, so far, hasn't seen fit to re-enter politics - obviously a little shaken by it (quite understandably). 

The Liberals are running John Loewen in the riding this time around, but he's thought to be facing tough competition from incumbent Conservative Rob Bruinooge.  Loewen has a fairly lengthy political career both in Manitoba provincial and federal politics, having been elected as a Manitoba Progressive Conservative previously, but has been with the Liberals federally.  Loewen lost the contest for the Winnipeg riding of Charleswood - St. James - Assiniboia in 2006 to Conservative Steven Fletcher, whom is well-known as being the only MP confined to a wheelchair ever elected to the House of Commons.

By contrast, Loewen's opponent in Winnipeg-South may be an incumbent, but Bruinooge is an incumbent with no prior political experience before running for the Conservatives in the riding.  Loewen is an experienced politician and has stronger ties to the riding than the other riding he contested in 2006.  Add to this Winnipeg-South's legacy as a swing riding prior to Alcock's arrival, and it could well go Liberal again if the momentum Dion has built recently has gained traction in Manitoba.

Tonight, I've heard the media commenting that this election isn't going to be too exciting - but I can't imagine why.  The stories of the ridings described here has to hold some interest, even for those not into politics too often.  Beyond that, this election is going to be close!  And it's precisely in tight elections when the vote cast by an individual matters most.  So a friendly reminder to everyone visiting my site tonight and tomorrow: GET OUT AND VOTE!

To those of you who know me well, you know me as a partly political animal. I've always been keenly interested in politics (to varying degrees over time) and although many of you are probably feeling "electioned out" perhaps not having exactly the same stomach as mine for this stuff, we're now at the end of the campaign and it's time to cast your ballot.

Now last time, a number of you I'd asked about voting told me "I didn't have my ID," or "I didn't know where the polling booth was" or some other excuse.  In Canada we've made virtually every reasonable accommodation to ensure voting is as easy and painless as possible.  Last year, my buddy Oz (sorry to "out" ya pal) said he couldn't vote because when he showed up at the polling station he was told his ID wasn't adequate - I think he'd forgotten his heath card at home or something and his birth certificate was rejected.  Yet he could have voted had he simply asked me to come along (as I'd suggested)!  You'll note in the rule below, option #3:

Elections Canada On-Line | 40th General Election - October 14, 2008

...which means that even if you forgot your ID like Oz, you can be sworn in at the polling station if another elector (like me) vouches for your identity and then cast a vote (although it is just easier if you remember your ID, plus you can go by yourself then).  You don't need to have been mailed a voting card, as I somehow have not been for the past several years now.

So all you have to do is show up with a friend who has ID at your polling station - remember that!  And if they tell you you can't vote, refer them to their own website and cite option #3 indicating you'd like be sworn in so that you can vote.

Remember to cast a ballot on Tuesday, October 14th!

And here's my next viedo blog entry - some trouble with video when the graphic is up, but will have that fixed for the next entry.

This session is devoted to a critique of Harper's latest smear tactics and how they don't belong in this election campaign!

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YouTube - Video Blog 081010
  

This may be the most volatile election in Canadian history.  Indeed, it's unfortunate I couldn't find a comprehensive digest of polls over the course of Canadian electoral history because I'm sure we'd see points in this campaign where definite and very obvious shifts in public opinion occurred.  To recap:

• We started off the campaign with Stéphane Dion's Liberals having taken a sudden plummet in the polls and riding approval ratings that were near historical lows.
• Shortly after the campaign began, Jack Layton and his New Democrats (NDP) pulled a repeat of the 1988 election involving another low point in Liberal Party fortunes: Liberal Leader John Turner fighting the election on a protectionist stance with respect to the Free Trade Agreement against the governing Progressive Conservatives under Prime Minister Brian Mulroney.  During the campaign, NDP leader Ed Boradbent declared that Canada's political system would be better off under a two-party system like in the United States (a very strange thing for a socialist to say!) and almost overnight the Liberals bounced back, although they still lost the election.  Likewise, Layton's assertion that he being elected as PM is the only real option to Steven Harper given the Liberals poor performance caused the Liberals to start gradually gaining strength.

  Historical poll data for the province of Ontario; the Canadian province with the largest number of seats in the House of Commons.  Liberal fortunes could have chaged indeed if these trends hold true through to election day (October 14th).

• But before this could happen, the leadership issue that dominated the first 2 weeks of the campaign resulted in the Liberals tying the NDP for second place in one Harris-Decima poll.
• And then there was the debate debate concerning whether Elisabeth May's Green Party should be allowed to join the other 4 mainstream parties in the televised debate.  The Conservative slide really began along with the NDP stalling in their reeling in the Liberals when the two parties declared their opposition to May's inclusion in the debate at the behest of an overwhelming majority of Canadians.  Layton would back away from the position opening the door for May to join the debate, but the damage was done.
• Although the NDP lost some support as a result of this mistake, it would be Harper that was decisively routed in the French language debate as Dion, engaged in his mother tongue, found himself in his element and came away from both debates, but the French debate in particular, as the winner according to follow-up polling.
• Coupled with Dion's good performance, the Conservatives suffered measurably from a poor showing by Harpoer (again, according to trial by follow-up polls).  Harper was mercilessly attacked from all 4 other major party leaders (including the Bloc Québecois); either unwilling or unable to respond to the various criticisms concerning the environment and the economy, Harper merely responded that we should 'stay the course' on both seemingly deaf to recently developments in the latter and long-standing scientific opinion in the former.
• Finally, the recent ongoing stock market crashes worldwide are starting to cause panic in the general population - but not, seemingly, in Mr. Harper.  Indeed, he's been reluctant to even acknowledge there's a real problem, saying Canada is in a unique position with respect to the global economy since no banks have failed.

The results have been (perhaps predictably) the loss of support nationwide for the Conservatives:

As you can see, starting last week, the slide begins - although as Harris Decima is now reporting, the slide appears to have levelled off (at least for today).  Also of interest is the climb in Green Party support, as is the NDP to some extent (as some of this is allegedly coming from CP/NDP contests in British Columbia in ridings where Liberals are not a factor).

And then late yesterday, Dion suffered his first "gaffe" (if you can call it that).  He was in a CTV interview (a Conservative media outlet) and although the reporter agreed to 'start over' after Dion misunderstood a question, of course the tape kept rolling and it was aired on CTV News and on You Tube as an example of Dion waffling on the issue of whether or not he has a plan.  But that analysis is extremely dubious; it's very clear to me, at least, that Dion's poor English skills (blogged about here previously) were the real cause of his response to the question.

Indeed, it's bizarre that Harper is reacting to this the way he is - and I see it as, frankly, desperate given his current showing in the polls.  Of course, misunderstanding a question isn't a sign of poor leadership or that Dion "doesn't have a plan" - he's only been talking about his plan for a week after all.  No, it's a sign that someone's losing the election and needs a lifeline.  (Harper must've been watching the Sarah Palin impersonator on Saturday Night Live and thought asking for a lifeline had become okay in a political campaign.)

A botched interview is so trivial a matter, I too wondered if it was relevant to post on my blog.  But, just like the CTV host conducting this interview, on reflection - I too thought it was important to show and talk about, albeit for very different reasons.  Clearly, CTV unsatisfied with its role reporting the news has taken to trying to shape the news in its own image.  Although as far as "gaffes" go, this one isn't very big - which is why I think it has a good chance of backfiring.

It will be interesting to hear Ottawa radio station's CFRA this morning to see what a solid, Conservative media outlet has to say about this interview, although I expect they too will try spinning it as a major "gaffe" by Dion.  Even so at least they will only be spinning it and not making a concerted effort to embarrass a public figure to change the outcome of an election.

Shame on CTV for demonstrating such naked bias!  At least nobody will be claiming this election was without its own drama and intrigue.  I expect the volatility in the polls we've seen to continue through to the end - an in particular if the Dion video will gain traction as a gaffe and hurt Liberal fortunes or if Harper's reaction to it will (as it already seems to be in Québec) make the Conservatives appear mean-spirited and damage their campaign.